No company lowered guidance, and some have raised guidance. Sony Music raised guidance for revenue and adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization by 5% and 4%, respectively. Reservoir Media raised guidance for fiscal 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA by 10% each. It’s one thing for a company to meet expectations it had previously laid out to investors. But raising previously released expectations is something else altogether — a sign the future will be better than expected. It’s usually a benefit to the stock price, too. The share price is the present value of future cash flows. When an estimate for future cash flows takes a sudden jump, that changes the financial model used to calculate the share price.
The market for catalog acquisitions isn’t slowing down. Reservoir Media CEO Golnar Khosrowshahi said catalog prices aren’t contracting despite higher interest rates. “We’re still seeing a lot of demand for assets and continued infusion of new capital within the competitive set,” she said during Tuesday’s earnings call. “And that is certainly fueling the demand. The pipeline is robust. And it ranges in size from large to a lot of smaller deals.” Reservoir Media hasn’t been suffering from sticker shock, though. Acquisitions in the Middle East-North Africa market — such as some catalog of Saudi Arabian label Mashrex in June — provide the company with good value, Khosrowshahi added. “If we’re looking at a market here that is somewhat saturated with a lot of capital in the marketplace, and we’re able to execute [deals in MENA] at these lower multiples, that makes it just that much more attractive to us.”